Whatever People Say I am, That's What I'm Not: What Comes Next For Turnbull
September 16th 2008 22:23
There were whispers last week that there was going to be a leadership spill in the Federal Liberal Party yesterday but one can never fully take whispers on board. When you don’t know who they are coming from, it is really only speculation with any number of agendas behind the words. But, this time at least, the whispers proved correct. The one thing I think no one had predicted was the corner from which the spill would come. Even the whispers weren’t so outlandish as to claim that it would be Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson who called for the vote. No one could be that politically suicidal. Could they? Well, yes, the answer seems they could be. Brendan Nelson called his colleagues into the party room late Monday night and told them the next morning would be a vote on the leadership and that was going to be that. No more speculation. No more whispers. The end of the matter once and for all. And with that, he left, probably to rabidly call colleagues to plead for their support. In the end his gambit didn’t pay off, and Nelson narrowly lost out the leadership to Shadow Treasurer Malcolm Turnbull in a tight margin of 45-41. With that, it was over. In a matter of just over twelve hours from calling the spill, Nelson was making the long walk from the dispatch box to the backbenches and Turnbull was taking the podium as the new alternative to the Ruddbot.
Nelson had to know he was taking a gamble. You can see how he thought he might have come out on top though. Turnbull supporters had intimated that he would wait a month to challenge, and Turnbull himself had been on a holiday in Italy for the week before the fateful leadership spill. As for the other shadow waiting in the wings to grasp the leadership (finally), Peter Costello had spent the weeks before the spill overseas and promoting his new book. In fact, yesterday was also the launch of the book at the National Press Club, so a leadership challenge was the last thing on Costello’s mind. You can see how Nelson thought a surprise ballot might come out in his favour, because no one was prepared for it and they had a matter of hours to get prepared. You could see from the drawn and dishevelled look of Malcolm Turnbull yesterday morning that he had spent the whole night canvassing and planning. Costello, on the other hand, looked quite fresh. He told the press he didn’t make a single call after he found out about the leadership ballot, and you could tell he was 100% telling the truth. Either way, Nelson went into that vote yesterday morning in the best position he could having thrown Turnbull off his game plan. But, unfortunately for him, it just wasn’t enough.
So Turnbull finally has what he always wanted. Almost four years to the day he entered office, Turnbull’s meteoric rise from MP to Parliamentary Secretary to Minister to Shadow Treasurer to Leader of the Opposition was complete. Only one more hurdle to go. The question is can Malcolm do it? Can he take on the Rudd juggernaut and make the Liberal Party a viable alternative again? That remains to be seen. Turnbull’s biggest downfall is that he comes off as particularly patrician, and the sometimes-arrogant attitudes of a multimillionaire don’t necessarily go down well with people in the mortgage belt, especially in a time of economic strife. Luckily for him Rudd isn’t exactly crying poor, but what Rudd has the amazing ability to do is to make people forgot exactly how much he is a part of the wealthy elite. Turnbull has to do the same if he plans on coming within shouting distance of Rudd. People will not take kindly to a multimillionaire telling them to tighten up their belts during the impending recession and there is a lot to be said for economic empathy.
Turnbull gets this. He spent most of his press conference yesterday telling people “Whatever people say I am, that’s what I’m not”. He spent the conference telling people that yes, he is rich. But he earned that money from humble beginnings raised by a single father, living in a rented flat and genuinely putting everything had into his rise to the top of his field. It’s an inspiring story, and definitely plays to the aspirational crowd that want to make the same rise in the world. Another thing Turnbull has going for him over Rudd in the impending economic bust is his former career as a merchant banker. People trust someone with their money who has spent their life working with money. Sure, Kevin can speak Mandarin but the only useful thing he can do with that is try to convince the Chinese to keep investing in the American economy to stop the worldwide recession. And I can tell you now: they aren’t going to listen to Kevin when money is on the line. It may just be that a failing economy is what can get the Liberal party back into the ascendancy. People are willing to throw out a government on personality reasons when everything is going well. But when the chips are down, they will flock to someone who knows what they are doing. Even if they don’t exactly like them as much as they like the other guy. Malcolm has to remember to remain humble, to keep reminding people that he isn’t out of touch and to keep telling them that he knows money.
His main mission in the next few weeks? Defining himself. “Whatever people say I am, that’s what I’m not”.
Nelson had to know he was taking a gamble. You can see how he thought he might have come out on top though. Turnbull supporters had intimated that he would wait a month to challenge, and Turnbull himself had been on a holiday in Italy for the week before the fateful leadership spill. As for the other shadow waiting in the wings to grasp the leadership (finally), Peter Costello had spent the weeks before the spill overseas and promoting his new book. In fact, yesterday was also the launch of the book at the National Press Club, so a leadership challenge was the last thing on Costello’s mind. You can see how Nelson thought a surprise ballot might come out in his favour, because no one was prepared for it and they had a matter of hours to get prepared. You could see from the drawn and dishevelled look of Malcolm Turnbull yesterday morning that he had spent the whole night canvassing and planning. Costello, on the other hand, looked quite fresh. He told the press he didn’t make a single call after he found out about the leadership ballot, and you could tell he was 100% telling the truth. Either way, Nelson went into that vote yesterday morning in the best position he could having thrown Turnbull off his game plan. But, unfortunately for him, it just wasn’t enough.
So Turnbull finally has what he always wanted. Almost four years to the day he entered office, Turnbull’s meteoric rise from MP to Parliamentary Secretary to Minister to Shadow Treasurer to Leader of the Opposition was complete. Only one more hurdle to go. The question is can Malcolm do it? Can he take on the Rudd juggernaut and make the Liberal Party a viable alternative again? That remains to be seen. Turnbull’s biggest downfall is that he comes off as particularly patrician, and the sometimes-arrogant attitudes of a multimillionaire don’t necessarily go down well with people in the mortgage belt, especially in a time of economic strife. Luckily for him Rudd isn’t exactly crying poor, but what Rudd has the amazing ability to do is to make people forgot exactly how much he is a part of the wealthy elite. Turnbull has to do the same if he plans on coming within shouting distance of Rudd. People will not take kindly to a multimillionaire telling them to tighten up their belts during the impending recession and there is a lot to be said for economic empathy.
Turnbull gets this. He spent most of his press conference yesterday telling people “Whatever people say I am, that’s what I’m not”. He spent the conference telling people that yes, he is rich. But he earned that money from humble beginnings raised by a single father, living in a rented flat and genuinely putting everything had into his rise to the top of his field. It’s an inspiring story, and definitely plays to the aspirational crowd that want to make the same rise in the world. Another thing Turnbull has going for him over Rudd in the impending economic bust is his former career as a merchant banker. People trust someone with their money who has spent their life working with money. Sure, Kevin can speak Mandarin but the only useful thing he can do with that is try to convince the Chinese to keep investing in the American economy to stop the worldwide recession. And I can tell you now: they aren’t going to listen to Kevin when money is on the line. It may just be that a failing economy is what can get the Liberal party back into the ascendancy. People are willing to throw out a government on personality reasons when everything is going well. But when the chips are down, they will flock to someone who knows what they are doing. Even if they don’t exactly like them as much as they like the other guy. Malcolm has to remember to remain humble, to keep reminding people that he isn’t out of touch and to keep telling them that he knows money.
His main mission in the next few weeks? Defining himself. “Whatever people say I am, that’s what I’m not”.
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