The Cold War is Over. This War is Hot.
July 30th 2008 23:15
Somebody once said that the position of American Secretary of State really should be known as the Secretary for the Middle East, because that particular region took up so much energy and attention that a lot of other areas of the job were neglected. It is easy to see why. Mutual paranoia and the Middle East go hand in hand, and without US intervention the nation of Israel would not have lasted nearly as long as it has. Which why continued US involvement is important, if only to prevent genocide. Which, is Barack Obama is to be believed, is very possible.
Reports out today say Obama told a meeting of Congressional Democrats that he got to impression during his visit to Israel that if sanctions did not work for Iran and they continued to develop a nuclear enrichment program that Israel would strike back against Iran. According to Obama, this wasn’t said outright but was more or less implicit when it came to discussions about the nuclear-aspiring nation. It is something to be concerned about. Israel haven’t exactly been good at making friends in the region, and there remains a lot of historical sentiment that Israeli’s do not belong there in the first place. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made his feelings on Israel clear, denying the Holocaust and being accused of anti-Semitism by a number of global organisations. An Iran well on its way to developing nuclear weapons. An Israel that doesn’t acknowledge having nukes, but many believe to have been armed with them by the US. Any conflict between the two would throw the Middle East into a tailspin that would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a picnic by the river. And with a US military already against the ropes, this might be one that the Middle East will have to sort out themselves.
What can we expect if the Middle East battles this one out amongst themselves? Well, Israel will be in dire straits to begin with. There are a number of nations in the region that would love to take advantage of the situation to rectify the Israel-Palestinian situation the best way they know how: remove the Israeli’s from the equation. Who would support Israel? I’m sure there are some moderate Middle Eastern nations that would either abstain or lend minimal support to the Israeli’s but it’s nothing that could be counted on. Israel has always put its diplomatic eggs in the hands of Western nations who would be relied upon to provide military assistance in stopping any invasion. As I said, however, with the US military spread very thin across numerous battlefronts the amount of immediate aid from them is worrisome. The EU could be expected to help, of course, but by the time help is organised and deployed Israel could already have suffered great losses.
Then there’s the big X Factor: the bomb. Does Israel have it? Most sources say yes. Does Iran have it? Not yet, but soon. Any country with its back against the ropes militarily will automatically go to the nuclear option as a genuine possible response. An Israel that is losing lives and land may press the button. Iran would likely respond with a bombing of their own. Soon there would be two huge craters in the Middle East and the results would be catastrophical.
So, Obama is right to be worried if this is the case. Sanctions have to be strong enough to work, but the US and Western allies have to have preparations made to deploy to the region if heat breaks out between two of the world’s more volatile nuclear powers. Only with a worldwide response of forces can the nuclear option be avoided for both nations, although the fanaticism of both regimes leave the possibilities for deploying nuclear weapons open even in the face of imminent loss, as a parting jibe. Obama and McCain both need to keep an eye on Iraq and Afghanistan, but put the other eye to creating plans that can be implemented in the event of a conflict between the two countries.
We always thought a nuclear winter between the US and USSR had been averted by the end of the Cold War. It looks like we might have been wrong after all.
Reports out today say Obama told a meeting of Congressional Democrats that he got to impression during his visit to Israel that if sanctions did not work for Iran and they continued to develop a nuclear enrichment program that Israel would strike back against Iran. According to Obama, this wasn’t said outright but was more or less implicit when it came to discussions about the nuclear-aspiring nation. It is something to be concerned about. Israel haven’t exactly been good at making friends in the region, and there remains a lot of historical sentiment that Israeli’s do not belong there in the first place. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made his feelings on Israel clear, denying the Holocaust and being accused of anti-Semitism by a number of global organisations. An Iran well on its way to developing nuclear weapons. An Israel that doesn’t acknowledge having nukes, but many believe to have been armed with them by the US. Any conflict between the two would throw the Middle East into a tailspin that would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a picnic by the river. And with a US military already against the ropes, this might be one that the Middle East will have to sort out themselves.
Then there’s the big X Factor: the bomb. Does Israel have it? Most sources say yes. Does Iran have it? Not yet, but soon. Any country with its back against the ropes militarily will automatically go to the nuclear option as a genuine possible response. An Israel that is losing lives and land may press the button. Iran would likely respond with a bombing of their own. Soon there would be two huge craters in the Middle East and the results would be catastrophical.
So, Obama is right to be worried if this is the case. Sanctions have to be strong enough to work, but the US and Western allies have to have preparations made to deploy to the region if heat breaks out between two of the world’s more volatile nuclear powers. Only with a worldwide response of forces can the nuclear option be avoided for both nations, although the fanaticism of both regimes leave the possibilities for deploying nuclear weapons open even in the face of imminent loss, as a parting jibe. Obama and McCain both need to keep an eye on Iraq and Afghanistan, but put the other eye to creating plans that can be implemented in the event of a conflict between the two countries.
We always thought a nuclear winter between the US and USSR had been averted by the end of the Cold War. It looks like we might have been wrong after all.
| 34 |
| Vote |
Subscribe to this blog
