Fast-Talking Malcolm and the Mad Monk for the Liberal Leadership?
September 11th 2008 22:52
Well, I am not ashamed to admit that every now and again I can be spectacularly, unequivocally, 100% wrong. I suggested in a blog this week that now Peter Costello is gone Brendan Nelson may get a stay of execution while the party lies in wait to topple him just before the next election. Strategically it would make sense for him to keep taking the hits for as long as possible before a new leader takes over and can attempt to maintain his momentum and ‘honey-moon period’ in the run up to the general election. But it seems I was wrong. Whispers out of Canberra have the leadership challenge coming much, much sooner. As soon as Tuesday, to be exact. Who are the challengers in this epic battle, I hear you ask? Well, Malcolm Turnbull for one. But that is to be expected. It’s the person that has teamed up with him that gives you the thought that they might just be a formidable team. Turnbull may bring in his followers, who only narrowly were defeated by Nelson soon after Howard’s defeat, but to win he needs to pull over some of the Old Guard who had sided with Nelson. The man to bring them over is none other than the Mad Monk himself: Tony Abbott.
A Turnbull-Abbott ticket is rapidly gaining credence as the most likely combination to challenge Nelson-Bishop sometime next week. Some out there though that Costello saying he wasn’t interested would be the last word on it for awhile. No one imagined Nelson would actually lead the Coalition into the next election. The Libs aren’t that unprofessional. They know he has no chance. But general political know-how says that the next leader should wait it out to make sure he or she doesn’t become too stale in the minds of the general public. It’s a delicate balance to make sure the public doesn’t have a leadership spill fresh in their mind and to make sure the leader themself is still fresh. But I guess desperate times call for desperate measures. Nelson’s reception by the public has been woeful, so the old rules are all thrown out the window. Enter Turnbull-Abbott.
It’s kind of an unlikely pair at first glance. Turnbull the patrician, the republican, the businessman, the scion of the Liberal Party, a star recruit and Abbott, the rough-and-tumble knock around lad, the monarchist, the Howard loyalist, the consummate politician. It is something that you don’t see in Australian politics very often, but it is familiar if you compare it to another political system. The process of picking a VP in the US system has many of the same considerations that would perfectly suit a Turnbull-Abbott pairing. Turnbull would make a fine Presidential candidate with his polished manner, his tendency to speak in sound-bites and his favour for long-winded pontificating. And Abbott would make a perfect attack-dog, known around town for his biting wit and aggressive Parliamentary manner. The question isn’t whether or not those two could work together. It’s clear they could work together as well as Howard-Costello, but most likely better than that. Which isn’t saying much.
The question is how they can square it with the different sectors of their party. Now, the Liberals aren’t as inherently factional as the ALP but they do have different divisions that need to be appeased. The sticking point for most of those divisions isn’t Brendan Nelson. Most would agree that he can’t possibly succeed, unless they are completely delusional. No, the sticking point is Julie Bishop. The Deputy Leader is well liked, well respected and well thought of in the party and there is no doubt they will want to make sure that she doesn’t get injured in a Turnbull-Abbott victory. Which is why Turnbull and his supporters will have to do some fast talking. Sources have speculated that Turnbull may offer to keep Bishop on as Deputy Leader in order to appease her backers, and bring Abbott into the fold by giving him the plum position of Shadow Treasurer. Bringing Tony in from the outer ministry where he is now, back into the fold, will probably be impetus enough for the Abbott backers to come on deck while keeping the numerous supporters of Julie Bishop happy. It would be the best bet for Malcolm Turnbull, who needs to establish a well-oiled team in order to beat the one-man autocratic machine that is Kevin Rudd.
Time will tell whether or not the leadership spill will come on Tuesday as predicted, or whether all the leaks out of Canberra are just kite-flying in order to gauge public reaction. Whether it’s Tuesday or not, the time is coming for an overhaul in the Liberal Party. All the Federal politicians must know that now is the time to pick a side. You can either commit yourself to going down on a sinking ship or you can take a risk on the new kids in town.
That choice may win or lose the next election.
A Turnbull-Abbott ticket is rapidly gaining credence as the most likely combination to challenge Nelson-Bishop sometime next week. Some out there though that Costello saying he wasn’t interested would be the last word on it for awhile. No one imagined Nelson would actually lead the Coalition into the next election. The Libs aren’t that unprofessional. They know he has no chance. But general political know-how says that the next leader should wait it out to make sure he or she doesn’t become too stale in the minds of the general public. It’s a delicate balance to make sure the public doesn’t have a leadership spill fresh in their mind and to make sure the leader themself is still fresh. But I guess desperate times call for desperate measures. Nelson’s reception by the public has been woeful, so the old rules are all thrown out the window. Enter Turnbull-Abbott.
It’s kind of an unlikely pair at first glance. Turnbull the patrician, the republican, the businessman, the scion of the Liberal Party, a star recruit and Abbott, the rough-and-tumble knock around lad, the monarchist, the Howard loyalist, the consummate politician. It is something that you don’t see in Australian politics very often, but it is familiar if you compare it to another political system. The process of picking a VP in the US system has many of the same considerations that would perfectly suit a Turnbull-Abbott pairing. Turnbull would make a fine Presidential candidate with his polished manner, his tendency to speak in sound-bites and his favour for long-winded pontificating. And Abbott would make a perfect attack-dog, known around town for his biting wit and aggressive Parliamentary manner. The question isn’t whether or not those two could work together. It’s clear they could work together as well as Howard-Costello, but most likely better than that. Which isn’t saying much.
The question is how they can square it with the different sectors of their party. Now, the Liberals aren’t as inherently factional as the ALP but they do have different divisions that need to be appeased. The sticking point for most of those divisions isn’t Brendan Nelson. Most would agree that he can’t possibly succeed, unless they are completely delusional. No, the sticking point is Julie Bishop. The Deputy Leader is well liked, well respected and well thought of in the party and there is no doubt they will want to make sure that she doesn’t get injured in a Turnbull-Abbott victory. Which is why Turnbull and his supporters will have to do some fast talking. Sources have speculated that Turnbull may offer to keep Bishop on as Deputy Leader in order to appease her backers, and bring Abbott into the fold by giving him the plum position of Shadow Treasurer. Bringing Tony in from the outer ministry where he is now, back into the fold, will probably be impetus enough for the Abbott backers to come on deck while keeping the numerous supporters of Julie Bishop happy. It would be the best bet for Malcolm Turnbull, who needs to establish a well-oiled team in order to beat the one-man autocratic machine that is Kevin Rudd.
Time will tell whether or not the leadership spill will come on Tuesday as predicted, or whether all the leaks out of Canberra are just kite-flying in order to gauge public reaction. Whether it’s Tuesday or not, the time is coming for an overhaul in the Liberal Party. All the Federal politicians must know that now is the time to pick a side. You can either commit yourself to going down on a sinking ship or you can take a risk on the new kids in town.
That choice may win or lose the next election.
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