Deal or No Deal with the Taliban?
September 28th 2008 23:24
Another week, another secret plan. War seems to bring a lot of things. Death, destruction, displacement... and secrets. Secret tactics, secret weapons and now, it would seem, a secret plan to end the war. Not that pesky little war in Iraq that seems to be going a lot better these days, it’s the other little war. The one that came first and has been getting progressively worse and worse over the past year. Afghanistan. It is a country that has never been defeated by a foreign power. Not Alexander the Great, not the Arabs, not the Russians and so far not the Americans and their allies either. They may have had the Taliban, on the run and pushed back into the mountains between Pakistan and Afghanistan but as soon as the Americans took their eye off the ball and switched focus to Iraq the Taliban were able to rally their strength and strike back, even going as far as retaking some provinces from American allies left weak without military support. So why do you think the Taliban have approached the allies trying to make a deal to end hostilities? In what universe do the insurgents that are winning a war want to give it all up?
Word has it from sources inside Kabul that high-ranking Taliban figures have approached members of the British Government and the Saudi Arabian leadership in order to negotiate a secret peace process behind closed doors and, fundamentally, around the authority of the Americans. A Taliban leader acting as a go-between has spent the last few months jet-setting between Kabul, Saudi Arabia, several European capitals and the Taliban camps of Pakistan trying to get a deal together that would allow the Taliban out of hiding and give them the ability to re-enter some government positions. This go-between has even shown up at the British Foreign Office and spoken with MI6 personnel to float his ideas.
Apparently he brings with him a list of 11 demands, including demands to be allowed to run key ministries and a program of withdrawal of Western forces. So far the sticking point has been the shifting demands of the Taliban. The situation is fluid. With each new development, the Taliban or the Western allies may change their negotiating positions. The talks had gained in momentum before the summer, and apparently an agreement was seen to be possible in the very near future. But a summer season of increased fighting bringing about more casualties on both sides has slowed up the process considerably. The Western allies don’t know how seriously to take the Taliban’s offers of a peace settlement, especially when it appears that the Taliban are in the ascendancy. As I said earlier, insurgents don’t negotiate a peace settlement when they have their opponents with their back against the ropes. There is cause for some suspicion on the part of the Western allies. On the other hand, the Taliban have reason to be suspicious too. The Americans aren’t known for being heedful of their agreements, especially after spending seven years demonising the Taliban and making statements that they would never surrender. The Taliban are right to be concerned that if the allies strike a deal with them, it might just be a ploy to get them out in the open. Both sides have to be cautious in this one.
There is one requirement that I’m not sure is on the list, but should be. The peace process would surely go through if the Taliban were willing to make one concession that the Western allies surely could not pass up, especially if President Bush wanted to add a triumphant caveat to a less than triumphant presidency. The Taliban would get their peace settlement with five simple words: Give up Osama bin Laden. It’s that easy. The Taliban and al-Qaeda are inherently interlinked. They ran for the hills together in the early days of the war and the whole reason that the war happened in the first place was that the Taliban would not give up Osama bin Laden after 9/11. It’s likely that if the Taliban leadership aren’t sharing a cave with the al-Qaeda leadership now, then they at least know where to find them. If the Taliban were to give up the location of Osama bin Laden and the rest of the al-Qaeda leadership, they could have their settlement, go back to their homes (if they are still standing) and return to as much normalcy as is possible in post-war Afghanistan. With a build-up and training of the current Afghanistan army to keep the Taliban militia in check, figures of the Taliban years could fundamentally enter Parliament if they were voted in without too much concern as a legitimate religious-political party not unlike those found in Western nations. A normalisation of relations with the Taliban could be key in stabilising the region.
One can only hope that the negotiations can find some steam again. And that if they were to reach an agreement, the Americans will agree to it. It is all well and good to demonise the enemy and give people a reason to fight them and keep them back. But when that enemy is in the ascendancy and comes to you to offer peace, it is something to be seriously considered.
Now, hand over al-Qaeda and welcome home!
Word has it from sources inside Kabul that high-ranking Taliban figures have approached members of the British Government and the Saudi Arabian leadership in order to negotiate a secret peace process behind closed doors and, fundamentally, around the authority of the Americans. A Taliban leader acting as a go-between has spent the last few months jet-setting between Kabul, Saudi Arabia, several European capitals and the Taliban camps of Pakistan trying to get a deal together that would allow the Taliban out of hiding and give them the ability to re-enter some government positions. This go-between has even shown up at the British Foreign Office and spoken with MI6 personnel to float his ideas.
Apparently he brings with him a list of 11 demands, including demands to be allowed to run key ministries and a program of withdrawal of Western forces. So far the sticking point has been the shifting demands of the Taliban. The situation is fluid. With each new development, the Taliban or the Western allies may change their negotiating positions. The talks had gained in momentum before the summer, and apparently an agreement was seen to be possible in the very near future. But a summer season of increased fighting bringing about more casualties on both sides has slowed up the process considerably. The Western allies don’t know how seriously to take the Taliban’s offers of a peace settlement, especially when it appears that the Taliban are in the ascendancy. As I said earlier, insurgents don’t negotiate a peace settlement when they have their opponents with their back against the ropes. There is cause for some suspicion on the part of the Western allies. On the other hand, the Taliban have reason to be suspicious too. The Americans aren’t known for being heedful of their agreements, especially after spending seven years demonising the Taliban and making statements that they would never surrender. The Taliban are right to be concerned that if the allies strike a deal with them, it might just be a ploy to get them out in the open. Both sides have to be cautious in this one.
There is one requirement that I’m not sure is on the list, but should be. The peace process would surely go through if the Taliban were willing to make one concession that the Western allies surely could not pass up, especially if President Bush wanted to add a triumphant caveat to a less than triumphant presidency. The Taliban would get their peace settlement with five simple words: Give up Osama bin Laden. It’s that easy. The Taliban and al-Qaeda are inherently interlinked. They ran for the hills together in the early days of the war and the whole reason that the war happened in the first place was that the Taliban would not give up Osama bin Laden after 9/11. It’s likely that if the Taliban leadership aren’t sharing a cave with the al-Qaeda leadership now, then they at least know where to find them. If the Taliban were to give up the location of Osama bin Laden and the rest of the al-Qaeda leadership, they could have their settlement, go back to their homes (if they are still standing) and return to as much normalcy as is possible in post-war Afghanistan. With a build-up and training of the current Afghanistan army to keep the Taliban militia in check, figures of the Taliban years could fundamentally enter Parliament if they were voted in without too much concern as a legitimate religious-political party not unlike those found in Western nations. A normalisation of relations with the Taliban could be key in stabilising the region.
One can only hope that the negotiations can find some steam again. And that if they were to reach an agreement, the Americans will agree to it. It is all well and good to demonise the enemy and give people a reason to fight them and keep them back. But when that enemy is in the ascendancy and comes to you to offer peace, it is something to be seriously considered.
Now, hand over al-Qaeda and welcome home!
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