Canberra's Coup: 17th Century Style
July 29th 2008 22:03
It 1649 and the King of England, Charles the First, has lost the Civil War for the nation’s future against the forces of the Parliament. As the king walks to his beheading, his mind must have been on the man most responsible for taking away his divine mandate to rule. Not another royal, not a relative, not the ruler of another country. A Parliamentarian and soldier by the name of Oliver Cromwell, soon to be made Lord Protector of the Commonwealth. And with one swing of the axe, King Charles is gone and nothing can stop Cromwell from rising to the top.
It may sound like just the type of mutinous behaviour typical of the 17th Century. But the same thing is happening in the Australian political sphere right this minute. OK, there’s no full scale warfare and I highly doubt that anyone will be losing their head. At least not physically. But the parry and thrust of political intrigue is alive and well, found festering within the dissatisfied ranks of the Federal Liberal Party. Leader Brendan Nelson is on the long march, like King Charles, to meet his own destiny. And like Charles it doesn’t look like there is much that will stop the inevitable from happening. One way or another, sooner or later, Brendan Nelson is going to lose his head.
Yesterday was quite possibly the worst on record for Nelson. And that says a lot because since his coronation as party leader after the electoral drubbing the Libs received at the 2007 election Brendan Nelson has been against the ropes. Yesterday he had happen to him the worst thing imaginable to the party leader. He lost his mandate. He woke in the morning to find a new poll suggesting that 18% supported him as Liberal Leader. Up from his low in the single digits, but still 6% behind his Treasurer Malcolm Turnbull and dominated by the 41% shadow of party scion Peter Costello. It’s not nice to find you are disliked at the best of times. To see it with sleep-crusted eyes and the coffee not even brewed must have sent him off balance for the rest of the day. A poll is one thing. But by bedtime it got worse.
Nelson was rebuffed by his own party on climate change. It seems the rest of the party have their finger on the pulse and have retuned their sensors to the pulse of the electorate. Nelson’s plan was to not sign up for an emissions trading scheme until the worlds biggest villains- China, India and the US- agreed to sign up as well. What did his party say to this? Well, one backbencher had the gall to call it a “stupid” idea.
There’s something to be said for respect. In the end, they turned down the Nelson Plan and returned to a policy of instituting a carbon trading system by 2012, obviously realising that a lack of green-credentials was one part of the reason for their loss to the ALP. In the end, the party room showed Nelson no respect and that does not bode well for a party leader. The whispers of an overthrow were already raging before yesterday but by now they should be in full steam. Even Nelson’s most ardent supporters have to realise that if a party leader can’t get the party to support one of his policy measures it doesn’t bode well for a long reign. And it’s not for lack of people waiting to take his place. Turnbull has been licking his lips since he only just lost to Nelson at the last leadership ballot. And no one is counting out Costello, with both the party and the public calling him to serve as in the top job. Well, the shadow top job anyway.
The fact is that Nelson will never by competitive with Chairman Dudd. His polling numbers have never come anywhere near Rudd and they aren’t likely to either. Neither are Turnbull’s either, as of yet, but they have to potential to rise. Costello, on the other hand, is a proven campaigner and his approval numbers (even with a divided party) are still within reach of Rudd. What the party need to decide is whether they want to win.
If the near-coup in the party room is anything to go by, they have begun to make that decision.
It may sound like just the type of mutinous behaviour typical of the 17th Century. But the same thing is happening in the Australian political sphere right this minute. OK, there’s no full scale warfare and I highly doubt that anyone will be losing their head. At least not physically. But the parry and thrust of political intrigue is alive and well, found festering within the dissatisfied ranks of the Federal Liberal Party. Leader Brendan Nelson is on the long march, like King Charles, to meet his own destiny. And like Charles it doesn’t look like there is much that will stop the inevitable from happening. One way or another, sooner or later, Brendan Nelson is going to lose his head.
Yesterday was quite possibly the worst on record for Nelson. And that says a lot because since his coronation as party leader after the electoral drubbing the Libs received at the 2007 election Brendan Nelson has been against the ropes. Yesterday he had happen to him the worst thing imaginable to the party leader. He lost his mandate. He woke in the morning to find a new poll suggesting that 18% supported him as Liberal Leader. Up from his low in the single digits, but still 6% behind his Treasurer Malcolm Turnbull and dominated by the 41% shadow of party scion Peter Costello. It’s not nice to find you are disliked at the best of times. To see it with sleep-crusted eyes and the coffee not even brewed must have sent him off balance for the rest of the day. A poll is one thing. But by bedtime it got worse.
Nelson was rebuffed by his own party on climate change. It seems the rest of the party have their finger on the pulse and have retuned their sensors to the pulse of the electorate. Nelson’s plan was to not sign up for an emissions trading scheme until the worlds biggest villains- China, India and the US- agreed to sign up as well. What did his party say to this? Well, one backbencher had the gall to call it a “stupid” idea.
There’s something to be said for respect. In the end, they turned down the Nelson Plan and returned to a policy of instituting a carbon trading system by 2012, obviously realising that a lack of green-credentials was one part of the reason for their loss to the ALP. In the end, the party room showed Nelson no respect and that does not bode well for a party leader. The whispers of an overthrow were already raging before yesterday but by now they should be in full steam. Even Nelson’s most ardent supporters have to realise that if a party leader can’t get the party to support one of his policy measures it doesn’t bode well for a long reign. And it’s not for lack of people waiting to take his place. Turnbull has been licking his lips since he only just lost to Nelson at the last leadership ballot. And no one is counting out Costello, with both the party and the public calling him to serve as in the top job. Well, the shadow top job anyway.
The fact is that Nelson will never by competitive with Chairman Dudd. His polling numbers have never come anywhere near Rudd and they aren’t likely to either. Neither are Turnbull’s either, as of yet, but they have to potential to rise. Costello, on the other hand, is a proven campaigner and his approval numbers (even with a divided party) are still within reach of Rudd. What the party need to decide is whether they want to win.
If the near-coup in the party room is anything to go by, they have begun to make that decision.
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